assessment of climate change impacts on operation of gorgan rud basin's dams

نویسندگان

امیرحسین شفائی

کارشناس ارشد مهندسی عمران آب، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد تهران مرکز، تهران - ایران شهاب عراقی نژاد

post graduate student, civil engineering, azad university, tehran center, tehran, iran علی رضا مساح بوانی

دانشیار گروه مهندسی منابع آب، پردیس ابوریحان، دانشگاه تهران، پاکدشت - ایران.

چکیده

in this study impact of climate change on operation of gorgan rud basin's dams was evaluated. in this regard temperature and precipitation of the basin for 2011-2035 periods were downscaled using sdsm model and cgcm3-a2 outputs. results showed that annual temperature would increase 0.05°c and annual precipitation would decrease about 4percent. to predict streamflow of the gorgan rud basin in 2011-2035, joint probability distribution were employed. results showed that the total annual streamflow will decrease about 4 percent. afterwards the predicted temperature, precipitation and streamflow of the basin were introduced to the weap model and the allocations to each consumption nodes were calculated. results showed that the total allocation will decrease from 92 percent to 90 percent and the total storage of the dams will decrease about 10 percent. the final results of this study showed that the water managements of the basin should be changed in the future periods.

برای دانلود باید عضویت طلایی داشته باشید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

assessment of climate change and its impacts on the natural land use of gorgan river basin

the objective of this study is to investigate of climate change in gorgan river-gharesoo basin and these impacts of this phenomenon on regional land use change, as well as provide guidance on the effective management and conservation of natural land area. analysis of climate data including rainfall, average temperature and relative humidity of nine synoptic stations in this area from east to we...

متن کامل

Assessment of potential climate change impacts on drought indicators (Case study: Yazd station, Central Iran)

This research studies the potential impact of climate change on future trend and changes of two well known drought indicators namely RDI and SPI in Yazd meteorological station, in central part of Iran. For this purpose, data of HadCM3 model that were resulted from GCM-runs based on the IPCC-SRES scenarios of A2 and B2 were acquired and analyzed for projection of daily Tmin, Tmax and precipitati...

متن کامل

Impacts of Climate Change on

Eliasson, P.E. 2007. Impacts of climate change on carbon and nitrogen cycles in boreal forest ecosystems. Doctor’s dissertation. ISSN: 1652-6880, ISBN: 978-91-576-7388-6 It is well known that soil carbon stocks decrease considerably in response to soil warming, but experimental data have shown that the loss of carbon declines within decades in apparent acclimation. An explanation to such findin...

متن کامل

Impacts of Climate Change On

متن کامل

Assessment of impacts of future climate change on water resources of the Hulu Langat basin using the swat model

متن کامل

the impact of training on second language writing assessment: a case of raters’ biasedness

چکیده هدف اول این تحقیق بررسی تأثیر آموزش مصحح بر آموزش گیرندگان براساس پایایی نمره های آنها در پنج بخش شامل محتوا ، سازمان ، لغت ، زبان و مکانیک بود. هدف دوم این بود که بدانیم آیا تفاوتهای بین آموزشی گیرندگان زن و مرد در پایایی نمرات آنها وجود دارد. برای بررسی این موارد ، ما 90 دانشجو در سطح میانه (متوسط) که از طریق تست تعیین سطح شده بودند انتخاب شدند. بعد از آنها خواستیم که درباره دو موضوع ا...

15 صفحه اول

منابع من

با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید


عنوان ژورنال:
مدیریت آب و آبیاری

جلد ۳، شماره ۲، صفحات ۴۳-۵۸

کلمات کلیدی
[ ' i n t h i s s t u d y i m p a c t o f c l i m a t e c h a n g e o n o p e r a t i o n o f g o r g a n r u d b a s i n & a p o s ; s d a m s w a s e v a l u a t e d . i n t h i s r e g a r d t e m p e r a t u r e a n d p r e c i p i t a t i o n o f t h e b a s i n f o r 2 0 1 1 ' , ' 2 0 3 5 p e r i o d s w e r e d o w n s c a l e d u s i n g s d s m m o d e l a n d c g c m 3 ' , ' a 2 o u t p u t s . r e s u l t s s h o w e d t h a t a n n u a l t e m p e r a t u r e w o u l d i n c r e a s e 0 . 0 5 ° c a n d a n n u a l p r e c i p i t a t i o n w o u l d d e c r e a s e a b o u t 4 p e r c e n t . t o p r e d i c t s t r e a m f l o w o f t h e g o r g a n r u d b a s i n i n 2 0 1 1 ' , 2 0 3 5 , ' j o i n t p r o b a b i l i t y d i s t r i b u t i o n w e r e e m p l o y e d . r e s u l t s s h o w e d t h a t t h e t o t a l a n n u a l s t r e a m f l o w w i l l d e c r e a s e a b o u t 4 p e r c e n t . a f t e r w a r d s t h e p r e d i c t e d t e m p e r a t u r e ' , ' p r e c i p i t a t i o n a n d s t r e a m f l o w o f t h e b a s i n w e r e i n t r o d u c e d t o t h e w e a p m o d e l a n d t h e a l l o c a t i o n s t o e a c h c o n s u m p t i o n n o d e s w e r e c a l c u l a t e d . r e s u l t s s h o w e d t h a t t h e t o t a l a l l o c a t i o n w i l l d e c r e a s e f r o m 9 2 p e r c e n t t o 9 0 p e r c e n t a n d t h e t o t a l s t o r a g e o f t h e d a m s w i l l d e c r e a s e a b o u t 1 0 p e r c e n t . t h e f i n a l r e s u l t s o f t h i s s t u d y s h o w e d t h a t t h e w a t e r m a n a g e m e n t s o f t h e b a s i n s h o u l d b e c h a n g e d i n t h e f u t u r e p e r i o d s . ' ]

میزبانی شده توسط پلتفرم ابری doprax.com

copyright © 2015-2023